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A chilling warning from FiveThirtyEight: Don’t count Trump out

Jason Norwood-Young
Jason Norwood-Young
2020-08-28

Having been caught out by the last US Presidential Election, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is going to great pains to try and explain that polls are both fallible and routinely misread:

“… the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.) So if you’re not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.”

Nate Silver, It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out

Read the full opinion here…

Jason Norwood-Young
  • Journalist, developer, community builder, newsletter creator and international man of mystery.

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