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A chilling warning from FiveThirtyEight: Don’t count Trump out

Jason Norwood-Young
Jason Norwood-Young

Having been caught out by the last US Presidential Election, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is going to great pains to try and explain that polls are both fallible and routinely misread:

“… the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.) So if you’re not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.”

Nate Silver, It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out

Read the full opinion here…

Jason Norwood-Young
  • Journalist, developer, community builder, newsletter creator and international man of mystery.

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